THE IMPACT OF A TRUMP OR HARRIS PRESIDENCY ON THE LIBERATION OF PALESTINE: A FILIPINO PEACEBUILDER’S POINT OF VIEW

The current genocidal act of Zionist Israel against the Palestinian people is enabled primarily by the United States of America. The potential presidencies of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris carry significant implications for the future of Palestine and its quest for liberation. This is my Artificial Intelligence-aided exploration and examination on how the foreign policy approaches of Trump and Harris could influence the Palestinian struggle for statehood, liberation, and peace over the next decade. While shouting “Justice!” and working with peacebuilding networks here in the Philippines, our community is fervently praying that all the systems and structures perpetuating the oppressive and genocidal actions of the Zionist Israel — being armed, financially supported, and diplomatically covered by the US, the UK, and other complicit allies — would be dismantled.

The Trump Presidency: Retrospective and Future Projections

Donald Trump’s presidency from 2017 to 2021 marked a period of substantial shifts in U.S. policy towards Israel and Palestine. His administration’s actions were characterized by strong support for Israel and a departure from previous U.S. efforts to mediate a balanced peace process.

Key Aspects of Trump’s Policy on Palestine

  1. Recognition of Jerusalem. In 2017, Trump officially recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and relocated the U.S. embassy there, a move widely condemned by Palestinians and much of the international community.
  2. The “Deal of the Century”. Trump’s peace plan, unveiled in 2020, proposed a fragmented Palestinian state with limited sovereignty, which was rejected by Palestinian leadership as heavily biased in favor of Israel.
  3. Normalization Agreements. The Trump administration brokered normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab countries (the Abraham Accords), altering regional dynamics but sidelining Palestinian interests.
  4. Aid Cuts. Significant cuts to U.S. aid for Palestinian refugees and institutions further strained Palestinian economic and humanitarian conditions.

Potential Impact of a Future Trump Presidency

If Trump were to be re-elected, the implications for Palestine could be significant:

  1. Continued Marginalization. Trump’s policies might further marginalize Palestinian political aspirations, entrenching Israeli control over contested areas.
  2. Increased Settlement Activity. Unwavering U.S. support for Israeli settlement expansion could diminish prospects for a contiguous Palestinian state.
  3. Diminished International Support. Trump’s unilateral actions could weaken international consensus and efforts towards a two-state solution, leaving Palestinians with fewer allies on the global stage.

The Harris Presidency: Prospects and Challenges

As Vice President, Kamala Harris has shown support for Israel while also advocating for the resumption of peace talks and addressing Palestinian needs. Her potential presidency could bring a different approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Key Aspects of Harris’ Policy on Palestine

  1. Two-State Solution. Harris has expressed support for a two-state solution, emphasizing the importance of both Israeli security and Palestinian self-determination.
  2. Restoration of Aid. The Biden administration, with Harris as Vice President, has restored aid to Palestinians, signaling a more balanced approach compared to the Trump era.
  3. Diplomatic Engagement. Harris advocates for renewed diplomatic efforts to facilitate direct negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians.
  4. Human Rights Focus. Emphasizing human rights and humanitarian assistance, Harris might push for better living conditions and rights for Palestinians.

Potential Impact of a Harris Presidency

A Harris presidency could influence the Palestinian liberation movement in several ways:

  1. Renewed Peace Efforts. Harris might reinvigorate U.S. efforts to mediate peace talks, striving for a viable two-state solution that respects Palestinian sovereignty.
  2. International Cooperation. Strengthening alliances with European and Middle Eastern countries could foster a more collaborative approach to resolving the conflict.
  3. Support for Palestinian Institutions. Increased U.S. aid and support for Palestinian governance and civil society could enhance Palestinian self-governance and development.
  4. Balancing Act. Harris would need to balance strong U.S.-Israel ties with advocating for Palestinian rights, navigating domestic political pressures and international expectations.

Comparative Analysis

The stark contrast between Trump’s and Harris’ approaches to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict highlights the divergent paths the U.S. could take in the next decade:

Under Trump

  • Unilateral Israeli Support. Continued unwavering support for Israeli policies could entrench the status quo, limiting Palestinian prospects for statehood.
  • Reduced Palestinian Agency. The lack of meaningful engagement with Palestinian leadership could exacerbate political and humanitarian crises.

Under Harris

  • Balanced Diplomacy. Efforts to mediate a fair peace process and address Palestinian grievances could foster a more balanced and sustainable resolution.
  • Enhanced Palestinian Development. Restored aid and support for Palestinian institutions could improve living conditions and governance, empowering Palestinians in their quest for liberation.

Challenges and Criticisms

Both potential presidencies would face significant challenges and criticisms:

Trump’s Approach

  • Alienation of Palestinians. Continued marginalization could lead to increased resentment and potential violence, undermining regional stability.
  • International Isolation. Unilateral policies might isolate the U.S. from key international partners and reduce its influence in global diplomacy.

Harris’ Approach

  • Balancing Domestic and International Pressures. Harris would need to navigate strong pro-Israel sentiment within the U.S. while advocating for Palestinian rights, a delicate balancing act.
  • Achieving Consensus. Reviving a meaningful peace process would require overcoming deep-seated mistrust and opposition from both Israeli and Palestinian factions.

The impact of a Trump or Harris presidency on the liberation of Palestine in the next decade will significantly shape the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Trump’s approach could entrench Israeli dominance and marginalize Palestinian aspirations, while Harris might pursue a more balanced and diplomatic path, fostering renewed peace efforts and Palestinian development.

Ultimately, the liberation of Palestine hinges on complex and multifaceted dynamics, including regional politics, international support, and the willingness of both Israeli and Palestinian leaders to engage in meaningful dialogue. The next U.S. presidency will play a crucial role in influencing these dynamics, shaping the prospects for peace and stability in the region.

Permanent link to this article: https://waves.ca/2024/07/26/the-impact-of-a-trump-or-harris-presidency-on-the-liberation-of-palestine-in-the-next-10-years/

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